Moicano Picks Tsarukyan to Beat Gaethje — But Wants Volkanovski Instead
GOATIFYRenato Moicano has put a remarkable contradiction at the center of the UFC lightweight title picture. He believes Arman Tsarukyan is the most likely man to take Justin Gaethje's championship, yet the fight he would rather see is Gaethje against featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. In other words, the contender who has earned the strongest sporting argument might not be the opponent who makes the most compelling farewell story.
The timing is unusually revealing. Moicano is preparing to headline the October 31 UFC Vegas 123 card against Tom Nolan, while Tsarukyan is coming off a spectacular knockout and Volkanovski has just reinforced his own championship standing. Gaethje, meanwhile, owns the lightweight belt after his June upset of Ilia Topuria. Nobody has announced Gaethje's next opponent. But Moicano's preference illustrates a choice the promotion cannot avoid forever: reward the contender who has climbed the ladder, or pursue a cross-division spectacle with two established champions.
Moicano sees the danger in Tsarukyan — and the appeal of a different fight
Moicano's argument is not that Tsarukyan lacks the credentials for a championship opportunity. It is almost the opposite. He considers the contender's blend of wrestling, striking and decision-making a serious problem for Gaethje, even after the champion's extraordinary victory over Topuria. That assessment matters because Moicano has experienced the title-level grappling demands of this division himself. He stepped in to face Islam Makhachev on short notice in January 2025 after Tsarukyan withdrew with a back injury.
The Brazilian's view also has two separate parts that are easy to confuse. He is making a prediction about the likely competitive outcome of Gaethje against Tsarukyan, and expressing a preference about what he would buy a ticket to watch. The first favors Tsarukyan. The second favors Volkanovski. It is entirely possible to believe that the best available challenger deserves the opportunity while acknowledging that a meeting of two decorated champions might be a bigger one-night event.
Moicano is hardly an uninvolved spectator. At UFC Vegas 123, he faces Nolan, an Australian riding five consecutive UFC wins into his first five-round main event. Moicano enters after submitting Chris Duncan in April and is trying to protect his place near the top of a crowded 155-pound division. His own result will influence which established names remain in the contender conversation. The stakes are therefore personal as well as analytical: every premium title booking potentially reshapes the queue for everybody below it.
That is what makes the comments more interesting than an ordinary prediction. Moicano is effectively describing two different ways to organize a championship division. One is a sporting ladder, where form and difficult wins move a fighter toward the belt. The other is a marketplace of stories, where the value of a matchup can depend on timing, age, personality and what it would mean to a fighter's legacy. Neither consideration disappears merely because the other becomes inconvenient.
Tsarukyan's knockout made the sporting case harder to ignore
Tsarukyan did not need another performance to establish that he belonged among the leading lightweight contenders. He already had wins over former champion Charles Oliveira and Dan Hooker in his recent run. But his September stoppage of Mauricio Ruffy changed the texture of the argument. A fighter whose most obvious advantage is often thought to be his wrestling ended a dangerous striking matchup with devastating elbows in the final seconds of the first round.
That finish is important for more than the highlight reel. Ruffy's ability to defend early takedown attempts forced Tsarukyan to operate in the clinch and at striking range. Instead of becoming one-dimensional, Tsarukyan found a decisive opening with his hands and elbows. It offered fresh evidence that an opponent cannot simply prepare to defend takedowns and assume the rest of the danger has been neutralized. Against Gaethje, the ability to disguise entries and create damage from the same positions could be decisive.
Gaethje's own style complicates the calculation. He is not an easy opponent to walk backward indefinitely, and his pressure, leg kicks and willingness to exchange can punish wrestlers before they establish a clean grip. But the champion's appetite for prolonged exchanges also gives a disciplined challenger moments to change levels, tie up an arm or push a sequence toward the fence. Tsarukyan does not need to win a spectacular kickboxing contest to make the fight uncomfortable. He needs to connect his striking threats to his grappling threats often enough that Gaethje cannot commit fully to either defense.
The lingering complication is not primarily technical. Tsarukyan's withdrawal from the planned Makhachev fight in January 2025 disrupted his earlier title path, and the division has since experienced championship changes and headline-making upsets. His current streak has done a great deal to restore his claim, but the UFC has not committed to a date or opponent for his next title challenge. That gap between a strong résumé and a guaranteed booking is precisely why Moicano's prediction has weight. If the most dangerous contender is also the easiest one to postpone, the ladder starts looking less like a ladder.
Gaethje can chase a legacy fight without pretending Tsarukyan is harmless
Gaethje has already altered the lightweight landscape once in 2026. His June victory over Ilia Topuria turned a matchup many viewed as an opportunity for the younger champion into a career-defining triumph for the veteran. It also changed what comes next. Gaethje is no longer a famous challenger trying to win a belt before the clock runs out. He is the man holding the belt, and that gives him influence over the kind of fight that could define the final chapter of his career.
Tsarukyan represents the straightforward sporting test: a younger, highly rounded contender who can threaten Gaethje in every phase and whose momentum is difficult to dispute. Volkanovski represents a different kind of difficulty. He is a champion with exceptional timing, feints, pace management and an ability to make experienced strikers react to threats that are not always there. The match could produce a high-level tactical battle without requiring either man to prove that he can overpower the other through wrestling alone.
There is also a difference in what the two fights would mean if Gaethje won. Defeating Tsarukyan would strengthen his claim to being the best lightweight of the moment, not merely the man who caught Topuria on the wrong night. Defeating Volkanovski would put another elite champion on his résumé and give his career a dramatic cross-division climax. The second storyline is easier to package as an event; the first may be harder to argue against as a championship obligation.
Moicano's preference recognizes that distinction without needing to invent a signed deal. Volkanovski has publicly entertained a meeting with Gaethje, and the concept has obvious appeal. But a proposal is not an official booking, and there is no basis for treating Tsarukyan as having been formally passed over. Gaethje's next opponent, timing and long-term plans remain open. For now, the choice is a live debate rather than a completed matchmaking decision.
Volkanovski's double-retirement idea could reshape two divisions at once
Volkanovski has given the superfight idea fresh credibility by what he did most recently, not simply by what he achieved years ago. His second-round knockout of previously unbeaten Movsar Evloev at UFC 333 reinforced that the featherweight champion remains dangerous against the division's leading challengers. A veteran champion who is still delivering decisive performances can reasonably ask whether one more unusual challenge would mean more to his career than another routine defense.
His most ambitious suggestion goes beyond a normal move up in weight. He has floated a fight with Gaethje as a potential joint farewell, with both champions retiring and vacating their belts afterward. It is an extraordinary proposition because the immediate entertainment value would be followed by a structural problem. Lightweight would need a new champion. Featherweight would need one too. Contenders in both divisions could be asked to wait while two titleholders build a final chapter around one another.
For Tsarukyan, that is the obvious source of frustration. If Gaethje fights Volkanovski and then leaves, the contender could eventually compete for a vacant lightweight championship rather than beating the reigning champion directly. A vacant belt is still a championship, but the route to undisputed recognition can feel different when the person at the top exits without defending against the strongest available challenger. Other lightweights would have their own arguments about who belongs in a vacancy fight, adding further uncertainty.
At featherweight, the situation would be just as complicated. Volkanovski has earned the right to think about his legacy, but the next generation of contenders also needs a meaningful path to the top. A farewell bout at 155 pounds could be spectacular without advancing the featherweight title picture at all. That tension is why the UFC's incentives are not perfectly aligned: a huge event can serve the business immediately while creating two complicated brackets the following month.
The strongest case for the superfight is therefore not that rankings have become irrelevant. It is that rare champions sometimes earn the opportunity to close their careers on terms that ordinary contenders cannot command. The strongest case against it is that championship belts belong to divisions, not to the private retirement plans of the people wearing them. Moicano's comments force both ideas into the same conversation. The UFC can prioritize a moment of history, but it should be honest about the sporting cost if it does.
Moicano has not discovered a contradiction in the lightweight title picture so much as exposed the one already there. Tsarukyan looks like a legitimate next champion because of the skills and results he has assembled. Volkanovski looks like a fascinating next opponent because his own championship run and proposed farewell create a rare occasion. Gaethje's June upset gives both ideas credibility.
The next decision belongs to the fighters and the UFC, not to a prediction made before a Halloween main event. If Gaethje chooses Tsarukyan, the division gets the direct competitive test. If a Volkanovski superfight happens, fans may get a historic occasion and the rankings may get a difficult reset. Until a bout is announced, the important distinction is simple: the most compelling fight and the most deserved title fight do not have to be the same one.
