Oliveira Picks Pereira to KO Pavlovich — But the UFC 335 Trap Is Real
GOATIFYCharles Oliveira has spotted what he believes is the opening Alex Pereira needs against Sergei Pavlovich: kicks. The BMF champion thinks his longtime friend can knock out the Russian heavyweight at UFC 335 on December 12, and his confidence is based on more than Pereira's famous left hand. Oliveira argues that Pavlovich can be vulnerable to kicks and that Pereira's timing and movement could make the difference.
It is an intriguing prediction, not a promise. Pereira was stopped by Ciryl Gane in his UFC heavyweight debut in June. Pavlovich is on a three-fight winning streak and demolished Tallison Teixeira in just 39 seconds in May. Their five-round co-main event could become a technical contest about distance, or end the moment either man makes one mistake.
Oliveira has his own dangerous assignment in the main event, defending his BMF belt against Diego Lopes. The two Brazilian stars are returning to the same card for the first time since UFC 300, but the stakes and their circumstances have changed considerably.
Oliveira sees an opening in Pavlovich's kick defense
Oliveira was careful to acknowledge Pavlovich's danger even while picking Pereira. The Russian is powerful, physically imposing and capable of ending a fight without warning. Yet Oliveira believes that his friend has a specific tactical advantage: Pereira uses kicks frequently, and Pavlovich does not always respond to them in the way Oliveira would expect from an elite defensive striker. That is Oliveira's assessment, not a universally established flaw.
There is a clear logic behind the prediction. Pereira's calf kicks can make an opponent reluctant to plant a lead leg, while his body kicks create another level of threat beneath the punches. An opponent who begins anticipating the kick can become easier to feint or draw into a counter. Pereira's left hook is especially dangerous when the man opposite him is reacting to several possible attacks rather than reading one predictable punch.
But kicking a heavyweight is not risk-free. A kick briefly changes the attacker's balance, and Pavlovich has the reach and aggression to punish a fighter who leaves his leg extended or takes too long to recover his stance. Pereira must establish range before throwing freely. Feints, footwork and exits are likely to be as important as the kicks themselves. He needs to make Pavlovich hesitate without giving him a stationary target.
Oliveira also emphasized timing. Against a heavy hitter, a clean opening can be decisive, but getting the first exchange wrong can be just as decisive in the opposite direction. Pereira cannot assume that his reputation as a knockout artist will make Pavlovich retreat. He has to show that his strikes can land while he remains defensively responsible.
The recent heavyweight debut against Gane is a warning against oversimplification. Pereira's striking credentials were never in doubt, yet Gane stopped him in round two. Moving up a division changes the physical demands of each exchange. Oliveira's prediction offers a plausible route to victory; Pereira still has to execute it against a man whose offense is designed to punish hesitation.
Pavlovich's 39-second knockout is the other half of the story
Any discussion of Pavlovich's possible weakness needs to begin with what he has done recently. In Macau on May 30, he overwhelmed Tallison Teixeira and finished the fight in 39 seconds. He attacked immediately, backed the Brazilian toward the cage and followed his punches until the referee intervened. The result showed how quickly Pavlovich can turn a single defensive problem into a fight-ending sequence.
It was his third consecutive victory. The two preceding wins, against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Waldo Cortes Acosta, came by decision. That matters because it challenges the idea that Pavlovich can only win by producing a knockout in the opening minute. He has demonstrated that he can bank rounds when necessary, even if his most memorable performances involve frighteningly fast finishes.
His setbacks remain instructive. Tom Aspinall stopped him in their 2023 interim-title bout, and Alexander Volkov beat him on points in 2024. Those defeats showed that Pavlovich can be beaten with the right combination of timing, movement and tactical discipline. They do not prove that Pereira can repeat the result. The Russian has since rebuilt momentum and is entering this matchup with the confidence of a contender who has already worked his way back from adversity.
For Pereira, the danger is not simply one isolated punch. Pavlovich can string attacks together and force a fighter into a defensive shell. Once an opponent is backed toward the fence, there may be little room to reset after a kick or evade the next combination. Pereira must use angles and movement to keep the Russian from turning every exchange into a forward march.
Five scheduled rounds also create a second problem. A cautious opening might reduce early risk but give Pavlovich time to read the kick patterns. An aggressive opening might score damage yet expose Pereira to a counter before he has settled. Oliveira sees a path to a spectacular finish, but Pavlovich's record explains why the route is so narrow. Both men have a legitimate chance to end the night suddenly.
Oliveira's BMF defense against Diego Lopes carries its own danger
Oliveira's confidence in Pereira is only part of his own UFC 335 story. He is scheduled to defend the BMF championship against Diego Lopes in the main event at T-Mobile Arena. The belt is distinct from the undisputed lightweight title, but the matchup features two popular Brazilian finishers whose styles could produce a remarkably volatile fight.
Oliveira captured the BMF title in March by controlling Max Holloway over five rounds at UFC 326. That performance offered a reminder of his versatility. Although Oliveira is famous for submissions and wild scrambles, he can also build a disciplined grappling plan and win by sustained control. He enters the December bout after victories over Mateusz Gamrot and Holloway, an important turnaround for a fighter whose career has repeatedly been shaped by abrupt reversals.
Lopes will be making his UFC lightweight debut after competing at featherweight. He has challenged for the 145-pound title twice and arrives with aggressive striking, submission skills and a June knockout of Steve Garcia. Moving up could change how he feels physically, but it does not automatically solve the problems posed by a veteran who has spent years fighting elite lightweights. Oliveira's submission threats make every careless scramble dangerous.
The matchup could be especially unpredictable if both men decide to chase early finishes. Oliveira's experience in extended fights gives him a route to control the pace; Lopes' speed and willingness to engage give him opportunities to force exchanges that are difficult to script. Neither man's reputation guarantees that the other will cooperate with the preferred game plan.
For the two Brazilian stars at the top of the card, the assignments are very different. Oliveira is defending a belt he already owns. Pereira is chasing his first UFC heavyweight victory after an unsuccessful debut. Oliveira's prediction about Pavlovich is therefore not a distraction from an easy main event. He has to solve his own high-level opponent while hoping his friend can solve one of the most dangerous punchers in the sport.
UFC 300 showed how differently one night can treat two friends
Oliveira and Pereira have known each other for more than a decade, and sharing a major UFC card carries emotional weight for both. Oliveira previously called for a huge stadium event in Brazil with Pereira alongside him. UFC 335 will not fulfill the stadium part of that ambition: it is booked for Las Vegas. But it does put the two men together in the main event and co-main event of a major December card.
The last time they shared such a stage provides an unusually sharp contrast. At UFC 300 in April 2024, Pereira knocked out Jamahal Hill in the main event, while Oliveira lost a close split decision to Arman Tsarukyan. One friend delivered a career-defining highlight while the other left with a setback. The two outcomes underline the uncertainty that makes the sport so compelling, even when both fighters arrive with elite skills and considerable expectations.
Since then, Oliveira has rebuilt his position and earned the BMF belt. Pereira became a former champion in two UFC weight classes and then attempted to establish himself at heavyweight. His defeat to Gane left the next step uncertain, and he has indicated that another loss at heavyweight could send him back toward light heavyweight. That possibility makes the Pavlovich fight more consequential than an ordinary contender matchup.
Oliveira's technical read deserves attention, but it also comes from a friend who wants Pereira to win. His belief in Pereira's kicking, movement and timing is an informed opinion rather than a neutral guarantee. Pavlovich's power, recent results and size are reasons to remain skeptical of any prediction that sounds too easy. The fighters themselves will determine whether the theory survives contact with the first dangerous exchange.
December 12 offers a genuine double test. Can Oliveira contain Lopes in a BMF title defense? Can Pereira establish his striking game against a heavyweight who can end a fight in seconds? The event needs no invented stakes. Two major Brazilian stars are fighting for different futures on the same night, and UFC 300 already showed that friendship does not mean they will leave the arena with the same result.
Oliveira's prediction is compelling because it offers a tactical explanation, not merely a cheer for his friend. Pereira can use kicks to change the rhythm, create reactions and open up his punches. Pavlovich can punish the slightest delay with heavyweight power and pressure. Neither path is guaranteed, and the Russian's 39-second knockout should prevent anyone from treating this as a routine Pereira comeback.
UFC 335 on December 12 will also ask Oliveira to defend his BMF title against Diego Lopes. Both Brazilians have a chance to make a statement, but they face opponents with every reason to spoil the occasion. Oliveira has made his pick for the co-main event. The Octagon will determine whether his insight into Pavlovich's kick defense proves decisive.
