Haliburton Is Back — and Indiana’s 19-Win Detour Could Snap Back Fast
GOATIFYThe Indiana Pacers are entering 2026-27 with a roster that looks less like a rebuild and more like a team waking up from a one-year interruption. Tyrese Haliburton is returning after the torn Achilles he suffered in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals, Pascal Siakam is still in place, and the front office already made its biggest structural move months ago by bringing in Ivica Zubac.
That creates one of the strangest bounce-back setups in the league. Indiana went from 50 wins and a Finals run to 19-63 while Haliburton recovered. Now the player who organizes almost everything the Pacers want to do is back, and the supporting cast around him still contains much of the group that made the 2025 run possible.
The question is not whether Indiana should improve. It is how high the bounce can go, and whether a different center, a thinner bench and a careful Haliburton ramp-up can still produce a genuine Eastern Conference contender.
Haliburton changes the geometry of Indiana’s offense
Indiana's collapse last season was not just about losing a scorer. Haliburton is the connector for the entire offense. His pace, passing angles and willingness to move the ball early in possessions are what allow Rick Carlisle's system to feel faster than the defense can organize.
The assist numbers show the difference. Even without Haliburton, Indiana finished 12th in the league at 27.7 assists per game last season. That is respectable. In the two seasons before his absence, however, the Pacers ranked third at 29.2 assists per game and then first at 30.8. His return should push the offense back toward the constant motion that made Indiana so difficult to load up against.
That matters for everybody around him. Siakam gets more opportunities to attack tilted defenses instead of creating everything from a standstill. Aaron Nesmith can live in the gaps and shoot off movement. Andrew Nembhard can spend more possessions attacking a second-side advantage rather than carrying the full burden of initiation. Obi Toppin becomes more dangerous when the game is played in space and early offense.
Haliburton also changes the emotional expectations. A 19-win season can make a roster feel like it needs a massive overhaul. Indiana's situation is different because the missing piece was the franchise guard who had already helped drive the team to the Finals. The Pacers know what the healthy version of this structure can look like.
Zubac gives the Pacers more force — and a new fit problem
The biggest non-Haliburton variable is Zubac. Indiana paid a major price to acquire him at the trade deadline, a package that eventually included the No. 5 pick in the 2026 draft. That cost will hang over the trade if the young player taken with that pick develops into a star, but the Pacers made the deal because they wanted an established center for the next competitive version of this team.
Zubac is not a plug-and-play copy of Myles Turner. Turner gave the Finals-era Pacers rim protection and three-point spacing, which helped keep driving lanes open for Haliburton and Siakam. Zubac brings more size, rebounding and interior scoring. He has produced at an All-Defensive and near-All-NBA level when healthy, and he outperformed Turner last season in several major statistical categories.
The challenge is speed. Indiana wants to move. Zubac has spent much of his career in systems that ask different things from a traditional center, and he played only five games for the Haliburton-less Pacers after the trade. He is also 29 and returning from a broken rib, so the opening weeks will be partly about learning how much of Indiana's tempo can be preserved without sacrificing what makes Zubac valuable.
If the fit works, the upside is obvious. Haliburton has never had a center exactly like this: a massive screen setter, powerful finisher and elite rebounder who can create second possessions without needing touches called for him. That can give the Pacers another way to win on nights when the transition game is not available.
The bench may decide whether this is a playoff team or a contender
The starting core is easy to understand. The bigger uncertainty is what happens when Carlisle begins mixing units. Indiana's 2025 Finals team could keep pressure on opponents because the bench maintained pace and created different kinds of problems. Some of that depth has thinned.
Bennedict Mathurin is gone. T.J. McConnell remains one of the league's most disruptive backup guards, but his impact dipped last season without Haliburton's gravity reshaping matchups around him. The offseason additions of Kelly Oubre Jr. and Larry Nance Jr. add experience, athleticism and lineup flexibility, but neither automatically replaces everything Indiana lost.
That becomes more important if Haliburton is eased into the season. Sixteen months after an Achilles tear, the Pacers have every reason to think beyond October. If his minutes are controlled or back-to-backs are managed, Carlisle will need to build lineups that survive without simply asking Nembhard or McConnell to impersonate the franchise star.
The good news is continuity. Siakam, Nesmith, Nembhard, McConnell and Toppin all understand the principles. Carlisle has a long track record of finding useful combinations, and the new veterans are not being asked to learn how to play NBA basketball from scratch. Indiana should be much more coherent than a typical team coming off 19 wins.
Indiana does not need another miracle run to matter again
There is a temptation to judge the Pacers only against the 2025 Finals run. That sets the wrong first benchmark. Indiana does not need to immediately reproduce the hottest two months of that postseason to prove the comeback is real.
A healthy Haliburton should raise the floor dramatically. Zubac gives them a center with a higher physical ceiling than the one they had during the Finals run, even if the tactical fit requires adjustment. Siakam remains a proven second star, and most of the connective pieces already know how to play together.
The league's early power models still treat Indiana cautiously, placing the Pacers around the middle of the NBA rather than among the clear favorites. That is fair after a 19-win season and a major injury. But this is also why Indiana could be one of the hardest teams to price before the season starts. Last year's record describes the season Haliburton missed; it does not necessarily describe the team that will take the floor now.
The most important development is simple: the Pacers have their offensive identity back. If Haliburton looks like himself, the ball will move faster, teammates will get easier shots and Carlisle will again be able to build lineups around one of the league's most unusual playmakers. The jump from 19 wins should be substantial. The distance from respectable to dangerous will depend on Zubac's fit, Haliburton's recovery and whether the bench can hold the line.
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