Iain Valliere’s 2026 Mr. Olympia Top 10: Why Derek Lunsford Is Still the Favorite
UPLIFT IRON CLUBIain Valliere has put a clear hierarchy on the 2026 Mr. Olympia Men’s Open field: Derek Lunsford first, Samson Dauda second, Andrew Jacked third and Nick Walker fourth. With Hadi Choopan out of the contest, that top group has even more room to define the show. The interesting part is not simply the order. Each contender represents a different route to an Olympia-winning physique: balance and back detail, towering shape, overwhelming structure, or sheer muscular density.
Predictions this close to a major show are snapshots rather than guarantees. Peak-week variables can change the visual result quickly: glycogen, water balance, posing stamina and the ability to stay full through prejudging all matter. That makes recent stage evidence especially useful. Dauda has just competed, Jacked has won twice at Arnold events this season, and Walker has both an Arnold runner-up finish and Tampa victory. Lunsford, by contrast, has had the luxury of preparing specifically for the Olympia.
Iain Valliere’s 2026 Olympia prediction at a glance
Valliere’s top ten is Derek Lunsford, Samson Dauda, Andrew Jacked, Nick Walker, Martin Fitzwater, Tonio Burton, Michal Krizo, Behrooz Tabani, Brandon Curry and Regan Grimes. It is a useful list because it mixes established Olympia champions with athletes whose recent seasons have changed how the division is viewed.
The 2026 Olympia runs September 24–27 in Las Vegas. The biggest late change is Choopan’s withdrawal, which removes the 2022 champion and 2025 runner-up from the comparisons. That does not make the contest easy for Lunsford. It means the judges can spend even more time comparing him directly with Dauda, Jacked and Walker.
That contrast also makes the first callout unusually difficult to forecast. Recent competition can prove conditioning, but it also costs recovery time. A long Olympia-only prep can improve weak points, but it hides the final package until show day. Neither route guarantees the better result.
Why Derek Lunsford is still the favorite
Lunsford has the strongest recent résumé in the lineup. He won the 2025 Arnold Classic, Pittsburgh Pro and Mr. Olympia, and his physique is particularly difficult to beat from the rear. His back double-biceps and back lat spread combine width, detail and lower-body conditioning in a way that can swing a close callout.
His challenge is that defending champions are compared against their own best package. More chest and arm detail would make his front poses harder to expose against taller, wider rivals. If he arrives with his usual back detail while looking fuller from the front, Valliere’s number-one pick makes sense.
Samson Dauda and Andrew Jacked bring very different threats
Dauda has already shown that his formula can win the Sandow: huge frame, round muscle bellies, flowing lines and strong presentation. His September 13 Europa Pro win matters because it showed a much more competitive package only eleven days before Olympia. The key question is whether he can keep the fullness that makes his silhouette special while tightening the conditioning enough to stand beside Lunsford.
Jacked is a different problem. His height, shoulder width, tiny-looking waist and long muscle lines can make other elite Open competitors look compact. He also arrives with major 2026 momentum after beating Nick Walker at the Arnold Classic and winning the Arnold Classic UK. When Jacked is hard enough, his structure gives judges something nobody else in this field can reproduce.
Nick Walker’s upset path is still obvious
Walker does not need to win a symmetry contest to become dangerous. His route is density, freak factor and enough conditioning to make his strongest shots impossible to ignore. He was second to Jacked at the 2026 Arnold Classic, then secured his Olympia ticket by winning the Tampa Pro.
The back comparisons could be decisive. Walker carries enormous hamstrings, glutes and back thickness, and he can pressure Lunsford in poses where muscular density matters most. The trade-off is shape: Dauda and Jacked can create cleaner silhouettes, while Lunsford can combine shape with extreme rear detail. Walker needs his peak to erase those advantages.
The middle of Valliere’s top ten may be the hardest to predict
Martin Fitzwater in fifth is a sign of how deep this lineup is. His combination of conditioning, balance and improving size has made him much more than an outsider. Tonio Burton follows in sixth with a compact, polished physique, while Michal Krizo remains one of the division’s most visually overwhelming athletes when his conditioning matches his arm and shoulder mass.
Behrooz Tabani, Brandon Curry and Regan Grimes round out Valliere’s list. Curry’s experience and presentation always matter, while Grimes arrives with useful momentum after finishing second to Dauda at the Europa Pro. In this range, a small miss in fullness, water or posing can move an athlete several places because the quality gap is narrow.
What Olympia judges are really separating in these physiques
Open bodybuilding is not a single-stat competition. More muscle does not automatically beat better shape, and sharper conditioning does not automatically erase structural weaknesses. The winning package has to combine muscularity, proportion, symmetry, conditioning and presentation across the mandatory poses.
That is why this top four is so compelling. Lunsford may own the most complete rear package. Dauda can create the grandest overall silhouette. Jacked has extraordinary structure and width. Walker can overwhelm a callout with density. The winner will be the athlete who gives away the fewest poses while maximizing his signature strengths.
UIC verdict: Valliere’s order is sensible, but the top three is volatile
Lunsford deserves favorite status because he is the reigning champion and has already shown a package that beats this level of opposition. Dauda is the most convincing redemption candidate after his Europa Pro win, and Jacked’s undefeated 2026 season gives him a legitimate argument to move above Valliere’s third-place prediction.
Walker is the wild card. If the show turns into a brutal rear-pose battle, fourth could look conservative. If shape and overall flow dominate the comparisons, Valliere’s order becomes easier to defend. Either way, Choopan’s absence has not weakened the intrigue. It has concentrated it around four physiques with very different strengths.
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