The Yankees’ October Plan Has a Gerrit Cole Problem — Schlittler Should Get Game 1
GOATIFYThe Yankees are close enough to October that the interesting question is no longer whether they have a postseason roster. It is how aggressively they should use it.
New York’s most likely Wild Card path points toward another meeting with Boston, and that makes the rotation decision unusually uncomfortable. Cam Schlittler has pitched like the best starter on the staff. Max Fried has been excellent against the Red Sox. Gerrit Cole is still Gerrit Cole, but his recent home-run problem and ugly history against Boston make his name much less automatic than it would normally be.
That creates a playoff plan in which reputation and current form are pulling in different directions. The lineup also has late-season injury questions around Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham, while Giancarlo Stanton’s calf setbacks have made his return far less realistic.
The lineup is mostly injury math now
The Yankees’ October batting order is not one fixed nine. It is a matchup puzzle, and the most important pieces are the health of Chisholm and Grisham and how manager Aaron Boone handles the platoon edges around Aaron Judge.
Chisholm landed on the injured list with a sprained thumb, but the expectation is that he can return before the end of the regular season. That matters because his left-handed power and speed change the middle of the order. Grisham’s Grade 2 hamstring strain is another variable. A late regular-season return remains possible, but Spencer Jones can cover center field if New York decides it cannot wait.
Stanton is the more serious loss. Repeated calf setbacks have pushed the possibility of a meaningful 2026 return close to zero, which leaves Ben Rice as the natural designated-hitter option and gives the Yankees more reason to build the lineup around versatility rather than one veteran bat.
If Boston starts Sonny Gray in a Wild Card opener, a plausible Yankees order starts with Rice at DH, Judge in right and Cody Bellinger in left. Luis Garcia Jr. has a useful history against Gray, while Chisholm, Jones, George Lombard Jr., Ryan McMahon and Austin Wells fill out a lineup that can stay balanced without forcing Paul Goldschmidt into a matchup that has treated him badly. Goldschmidt is 1-for-26 in his career against Gray.
There are smaller matchup details that could matter. Garcia has gone 4-for-10 with a homer against Gray. Judge has only three hits in 17 at-bats against him and has struck out nine times. Amed Rosario has also hit Gray well enough to be a bench option if Boone wants another right-handed look.
Against a left-hander such as Ranger Suárez, Goldschmidt becomes much more useful. Bellinger, Judge, Rice and Chisholm still form the heart of the order, but José Caballero can enter the infield mix. McMahon has also handled Suárez well, going 6-for-16 with a home run. Rosario’s history against Suárez is even better: 5-for-15 with two homers and no strikeouts.
That is the broader postseason point. New York does not need to lock itself into a ceremonial lineup. It has enough depth to make every at-bat a matchup decision.
Schlittler and Fried have made the first two calls easy
If the Yankees are choosing strictly on current form and opponent fit, Cam Schlittler should start Game 1.
That would have sounded bold a year ago. It does not now. Schlittler has become a Cy Young-level starter and has already shown he can handle Boston in a postseason environment. His eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts against the Red Sox in last year’s Wild Card round are not the reason to start him, but they remove one of the normal arguments against trusting a younger arm.
His 2026 season has only strengthened the case. He has paired overpowering stuff with command, and the Yankees have increasingly treated his starts like those of a true ace. In a short series, there is no prize for giving Game 1 to the pitcher with the longest résumé. The first game should go to the pitcher most likely to dominate it.
Max Fried is the straightforward Game 2 choice. Since joining New York, Fried has repeatedly given Boston problems. Across six starts against the Red Sox, he has produced a 1.24 ERA with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. That is exactly the kind of opponent-specific edge a club should exploit in a best-of-three round.
Putting Schlittler and Fried first also gives the Yankees two very different looks. Schlittler can overwhelm hitters with power. Fried can change eye levels, move the ball and force Boston to solve a completely different problem the next day.
It also buys New York one more day before making the hardest decision on the staff.
Game 3 is where Cole becomes the uncomfortable call
A deciding Game 3 would normally be where the Yankees hand the ball to Gerrit Cole and stop thinking. The problem is that 2026 has given them reasons to keep thinking.
Cole has allowed seven home runs over his last two starts, and his September numbers have moved in the wrong direction. More importantly, Boston has consistently been one of his worst opponents. Across regular-season meetings with the Red Sox from 2021 through 2026, he has a 6.36 ERA in 75 innings. His postseason ERA against Boston is 7.88 in eight innings.
The contrast is enormous. Against everyone else over the same regular-season span, Cole has been far closer to the dominant pitcher the Yankees expect, with a 2.90 ERA across more than 700 innings. His non-Boston postseason work has also been excellent. This is not an argument that Cole is suddenly unusable. It is an argument that a specific opponent changes the calculation.
Carlos Rodón gives New York a real alternative. He has posted a 2.25 ERA over the last month and would force Boston to deal with another left-handed starter after Fried. If the Yankees enter Game 3 with the season on the line, starting Rodón and keeping Cole available behind him could be the more rational arrangement.
Clarke Schmidt could also become important even if he is not stretched out enough to start. His rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery has produced encouraging swing-and-miss results, including 11 strikeouts among 26 batters faced over five rehab appearances. The Yankees’ bullpen has been vulnerable in the eighth inning, where its ERA has been much worse than in the fifth, sixth, seventh and ninth. A healthy Schmidt could give Boone a multi-inning bridge precisely where the staff needs one.
Ryan Weathers is another recovery situation to monitor after a flexor strain, but Schmidt is the pitcher with the clearest chance to reshape the October bullpen immediately.
The projected postseason roster therefore becomes less about squeezing every famous name into a traditional role and more about creating optionality. Carry enough pitching to shorten games, use the bench aggressively around matchups, and do not let a starter’s contract or history dictate a decision that the current evidence does not support.
The Yankees have enough talent to win a short series without overcomplicating it. Their best version is also the least sentimental one: let Schlittler open it, let Fried attack the matchup he has owned, and make Cole earn the deciding-game start rather than awarding it by default.
October rewards teams that react fastest to what their roster has become. New York’s roster has become deep, flexible and slightly awkward at the top of the rotation. That awkwardness is not a weakness if the Yankees are willing to use it.
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