NBA Expansion Draft: Who Every Team Would Protect and Expose
GOATIFYThe NBA is moving closer to a serious expansion decision, and that makes the expansion-draft thought experiment much more than a random roster game. If two new franchises entered the league under a framework similar to the one used for Charlotte in 2004, every existing team would be forced to reveal how it actually values its roster.
The basic rules are simple: each team can protect up to eight eligible players, only players under contract or restricted free agents can be protected, and every team must leave at least one player available. The hard part is what those rules do to normal roster logic. A team's eight best players are not always its eight smartest protections. Salary, age, injury risk, team control, positional scarcity, trade value and the limited spending power of an expansion franchise all matter.
Below is a full 30-team protection board, preserving the complete league-wide scope of the source exercise while analyzing each decision from scratch. Every team gets its own section, its protected and unprotected groups, and the key logic behind the most difficult calls.
Cover image credits: Cyrus Saatsaz / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Chensiyuan / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Atlanta Hawks
Protected: Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, Lu Dort, Onyeka Okongwu, Zuby Ejiofor, Kingston Flemings, Aaron Wiggins
Unprotected: Dyson Daniels, Corey Kispert, Jock Landale, Devin Carter, Buddy Hield, Ryan Nembhard, Mouhamed Gueye, Asa Newell, Henri Veesaar
Atlanta's board is mostly a bet on immediate competitiveness, cheap control and positional balance. Jalen Johnson is the obvious first name, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, Lu Dort and Onyeka Okongwu give the Hawks a core that can still function as a serious team immediately. The more interesting calls are at the bottom, where Zuby Ejiofor, Kingston Flemings and Aaron Wiggins win protection spots over more recognizable alternatives.
Dyson Daniels is the headline omission. That is less an argument that he is worse than the protected players than a salary-management gamble. An expansion club working with a reduced first-year cap may hesitate to devote a large portion of its spending power to a non-shooting guard on a major extension. Atlanta could therefore try to protect cheaper value and dare the new team to absorb Daniels. Mouhamed Gueye is another painful exposure because his defensive versatility and low cost are attractive, but his injury and approaching free agency make the younger, cost-controlled options easier to prioritize.
Boston Celtics
Protected: Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Hugo González, Ron Harper Jr., Baylor Scheierman, Jordan Walsh
Unprotected: Paul George, Mitchell Robinson, Chris Cenac Jr., Sam Hauser, Luka Garza, Mike Conley
Boston's list makes its direction obvious: keep the true stars and preserve as much low-cost depth as possible. Jayson Tatum and Derrick White are automatic, while Payton Pritchard and the group of cheap younger rotation pieces matter because the Celtics are operating with much tighter financial discipline than in previous years.
Paul George is the fascinating name left exposed, but the logic is almost entirely contractual. An expansion team with restricted spending power would have to burn an enormous share of its cap on an older, expensive veteran. Boston can reasonably assume that the sticker price itself functions like protection. Mitchell Robinson is a smaller version of the same gamble: useful when healthy, but difficult to justify as a foundational expansion selection because of his availability concerns and salary. Sam Hauser is the name Boston might genuinely regret losing. The Celtics could decide his shooting is worth protecting over one of the younger wings, but this version of the board prioritizes age and cheap team control.
Brooklyn Nets
Protected: Michael Porter Jr., Egor Dëmin, Mikel Brown Jr., Day'Ron Sharpe, Joshua Jefferson, Noah Clowney, Josh Minott, Drake Powell
Unprotected: Julius Randle, Terrance Mann, Keon Ellis, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, Moe Wagner
Brooklyn's exercise is almost the opposite of a contender's. The Nets do not have eight obvious keepers, so the question becomes which players still have enough upside, cost control or trade value to justify taking a protected slot. Egor Dëmin and Mikel Brown Jr. are the cleanest long-term choices. Day'Ron Sharpe, Noah Clowney, Josh Minott and the younger forwards follow because the roster needs to preserve whatever development runway it still has.
Michael Porter Jr. is the only expensive veteran who makes the protected side. His contract is large, but he remains one of Brooklyn's few proven high-level offensive pieces and still carries trade value. Exposing him would risk losing an asset for nothing. Julius Randle and Terrance Mann are easier to make available because they do not align as neatly with a rebuilding timeline. The bigger philosophical point is that expansion rewards teams with clear hierarchies. Brooklyn's ambiguity makes nearly every slot debatable.
Charlotte Hornets
Protected: Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Naz Reid, Coby White, Moussa Diabaté, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Liam McNeeley, Hannes Steinbach
Unprotected: Dennis Schröder, Grant Williams, Grayson Allen, Dorian Finney-Smith, Royce O'Neale, Christian Anderson, Tidjane Salaün, Pat Connaughton, Sion James
Charlotte has a cleaner youth hierarchy than Brooklyn, but the final protection slots still force uncomfortable trade-offs. Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel are foundational. Naz Reid and Coby White are productive enough to protect despite larger salaries, while Ryan Kalkbrenner, Liam McNeeley and Hannes Steinbach offer cheaper control and development value.
Moussa Diabaté is the most interesting marginal choice. He can help immediately at center, but he is also approaching a raise, so Charlotte has to decide whether his current usefulness is more valuable than another cheap prospect. This board keeps him and exposes Christian Anderson, Tidjane Salaün and Sion James. Coby White is another player an expansion team might actually want, which is exactly why Charlotte protects him even if his contract eats a meaningful chunk of a new club's budget. The Hornets cannot assume every good but expensive player will scare expansion teams away, so White stays behind the rope.
Chicago Bulls
Protected: Caleb Wilson, Matas Buzelis, Noa Essengue, Norman Powell, Jalen Smith, Dailyn Swain, Tre Jones, Leonard Miller
Unprotected: Josh Giddey, Nic Claxton, Isaac Okoro, Patrick Williams, Rob Dillingham, Zach Collins
Chicago is the clearest example of why an expansion list is not simply a ranking of the eight best basketball players. The Bulls are rebuilding around flexibility and younger assets, so Caleb Wilson, Matas Buzelis, Noa Essengue, Dailyn Swain and Leonard Miller are easy to justify. Tre Jones and Jalen Smith fit because they are useful without creating major financial stress. Norman Powell is the expensive exception because his shooting is still central to keeping the offense functional.
Josh Giddey being exposed would create the loudest reaction. The logic is that a new franchise may be reluctant to spend a huge percentage of its first-year cap on a good but not franchise-defining player with shooting limitations. Chicago could use the same tactic with Nic Claxton and Patrick Williams. That is a calculated risk rather than a verdict on talent. If an expansion team loves Giddey, the Bulls lose a useful player. If it passes, Chicago effectively protected more than eight players by exploiting contract economics.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Protected: Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Peyton Watson, Sam Merrill, Jaylon Tyson, Meleek Thomas
Unprotected: Thomas Bryant, Nae'quan Tomlin, Tyrese Proctor, Craig Porter Jr., Mario Hezonja
Cleveland's top end is simple. Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are too important to expose, and Peyton Watson has become part of the next layer of the core. Jaylon Tyson and Meleek Thomas stay because cheap years of team control are especially valuable on an expensive contender.
James Harden is a more interesting case. His age would normally make him a candidate to expose, but his salary is not so extreme that an expansion club would automatically pass. Cleveland therefore protects him rather than gambling with a still-productive creator and a very recognizable trade asset. Sam Merrill is the type of player contenders sometimes underrate in these exercises: elite shooting on a manageable deal matters more than his name recognition suggests. The Cavaliers could choose to stop at seven if tax savings became the overriding goal, but voluntarily making a useful shooter available just to trim money would weaken a roster still trying to win now.
Dallas Mavericks
Protected: Cooper Flagg, Kyrie Irving, Morez Johnson Jr., Dereck Lively II, Naji Marshall, PJ Washington, Max Christie, Sergio de Larrea
Unprotected: Daniel Gafford, Santi Aldama, Zaccharie Risacher, Caleb Martin, Tarik Biberovic, Marcus Sasser, Moussa Cissé
Cooper Flagg is the one Dallas decision that needs no explanation. After that, nearly every slot involves balancing current quality against age, durability and future control. Kyrie Irving remains protected because, even after a lost season, he still has enough offensive value and name recognition to matter as either a player or a trade piece. Dereck Lively II also stays despite health questions because Dallas has already seen what his rim protection and finishing can look like in meaningful playoff games.
The painful exposures are Daniel Gafford, Santi Aldama and Zaccharie Risacher. Gafford may be the more dependable center today, but Lively's age and upside win the internal comparison. Aldama's shooting would make him attractive to an expansion team, and Risacher is exactly the kind of former top pick a new front office might gamble on. Dallas protects the younger, cheaper and more controllable alternatives, accepting that a credible NBA contributor could be lost.
Denver Nuggets
Protected: Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones, DeMar DeRozan
Unprotected: Zeke Nnaji, DaRon Holmes II, Marvin Bagley III, Tyus Jones, Alpha Diallo, Lonnie Walker IV, Trevon Brazile
Denver should treat an expansion draft as an extension of the Nikola Jokić championship window. Jokić, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are automatic, and Christian Braun belongs in the same practical tier because he is central to how the current team defends and runs. Cam Johnson and DeMar DeRozan are protected because they give the Nuggets proven offense around the core rather than theoretical upside.
The debate begins with Julian Strawther versus DaRon Holmes II. Holmes offers youth and frontcourt upside, but Strawther has already shown he can live in Denver's rotation and provide valuable shooting. That makes him easier to trust right now. Zeke Nnaji is the obvious contract Denver would be happy to expose, and the remaining names are useful but replaceable relative to the protected eight. Gordon is not a serious candidate to be left out despite age and injury concerns. His fit next to Jokić remains too specific and too difficult to replicate.
Detroit Pistons
Protected: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, Ron Holland II, John Collins, Daniss Jenkins, Isaiah Joe, Paul Reed
Unprotected: Duncan Robinson, Kevin Huerter, Ebuka Okorie, Javonte Green, Gary Harris, Taurean Prince, Tolu Smith III, Chaz Lanier
Detroit's first three names are locked: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson are the structural core. Ron Holland II remains protected because the Pistons should not abandon a recent high-upside wing simply because his jumper is still developing. John Collins and Isaiah Joe stay for a different reason: Detroit's offense needs spacing and functional veteran production around its young stars.
Daniss Jenkins earns a spot because the roster has surprisingly little secondary ball-handling and shooting outside Cunningham. Paul Reed's value rose when the frontcourt rotation changed, giving him a clearer role than many of the exposed veterans. Ebuka Okorie is the only young omission that should make Detroit particularly uncomfortable. Exposing a recent first-rounder is never ideal, but the protected list is crowded with players who already fill essential roles. The decision shows how quickly a rising team can move from collecting prospects to choosing which prospects actually fit its competitive timeline.
Golden State Warriors
Protected: Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Al Horford, Yaxel Lendeborg, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Kristaps Porziņģis
Unprotected: De'Anthony Melton, Charles Bassey, Will Richard, Gui Santos, Georges Niang, Brandon Williams, Gary Payton II
Golden State's entire protection strategy is defined by one fact: Stephen Curry is still the franchise's timeline. That makes Curry automatic and pushes the Warriors to keep the veterans they specifically assembled to compete with him, including Draymond Green, Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford and Jimmy Butler. Even with Butler recovering from a major knee injury, his expiring salary and two-way ceiling are too useful to surrender for nothing.
The youthful side of the list matters just as much. Brandin Podziemski and Yaxel Lendeborg help bridge the current era to whatever comes next, while Moses Moody earns protection despite his patellar-tendon injury because he is still young, under a manageable deal and was producing the best shooting of his career before getting hurt. The sacrifice is real: De'Anthony Melton, Will Richard, Gui Santos and Gary Payton II all become available. Golden State cannot protect both the full Curry supporting cast and every useful younger player.
Houston Rockets
Protected: Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Steven Adams
Unprotected: Clint Capela, Marcus Smart, Bogdan Bogdanović, Isaiah Crawford, Bruce Thornton, Jae'Sean Tate
Houston's first seven are straightforward: Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet, Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason are either core pieces or essential high-level veterans. The real choice is the eighth spot, where Steven Adams beats out Marcus Smart.
That decision is about roster scarcity. Smart brings perimeter defense, toughness and secondary creation, but Houston already has several guards and wings who can absorb those responsibilities if Thompson and Sheppard continue to grow. Adams gives the Rockets something harder to reproduce: elite screening, offensive rebounding and brute-force interior play that can rescue possessions when the half-court offense stalls. His health makes the choice risky, and an expansion team would be delighted to have Smart available. Still, Houston's protected list is not supposed to reward the eight best résumés. It is supposed to preserve the eight pieces whose roles are hardest to replace within this roster.
Indiana Pacers
Protected: Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac, Andrew Nembhard, Kelly Oubre Jr., Aaron Nesmith, Johnny Furphy, Jarace Walker
Unprotected: Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Jay Huff, Quenton Jackson, Larry Nance Jr.
Indiana's starting group handles most of the decision-making. Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith all remain because they form the competitive spine of a team that still expects to matter in the East. Kelly Oubre Jr. takes another slot because the Pacers need proven wing minutes around that core.
The last two spots are more forward-looking. Johnny Furphy is protected even while recovering from a torn ACL because two inexpensive years of team control and two-way upside are difficult to replace. Jarace Walker gets the final nod over T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin. That feels counterintuitive if the goal were simply to maximize next season, but expansion protection is an asset-management exercise. Indiana can stomach an expansion club taking on a veteran's multi-year salary more easily than it can stomach surrendering a younger combo forward before finding out whether his ceiling is still reachable.
Los Angeles Clippers
Protected: Darius Garland, Brandon Ingram, Rui Hachimura, Keaton Wagler, Derrick Jones Jr., Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Max Strus, Jordan Miller
Unprotected: Brook Lopez, Kris Dunn, Isaiah Jackson, Gradey Dick, Kobe Sanders, Cameron Christie, Bradley Beal, Johni Broome, Baba Miller
The Clippers' rebuilt roster creates a very different expansion problem from the old Kawhi-era version. Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram are obvious offensive anchors, while Rui Hachimura, Derrick Jones Jr. and Max Strus provide proven complementary value. Keaton Wagler, Yanic Konan Niederhauser and Jordan Miller make the protected side because the franchise needs younger pieces it can control and develop.
Kris Dunn is the hardest defensive sacrifice. His point-of-attack work would be immediately useful to an expansion club, but Strus' shooting, playoff track record and expiring contract make him more valuable as both a rotation player and a trade chip. Kobe Sanders is another painful omission among the younger group. Bradley Beal and Brook Lopez are easier to expose because age and salary reduce the chance that a new team would prioritize them. The Clippers are betting that the expansion market will value cheap youth and versatile contracts more than older names.
Los Angeles Lakers
Protected: Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, Walker Kessler, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, Jake LaRavia, Cameron Carr
Unprotected: Jarred Vanderbilt, Jaden Hardy, Kevon Looney, Dalton Knecht, Ziaire Williams, Bronny James, Adou Thiero, Matisse Thybulle
Los Angeles has three effortless protections in Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves and Walker Kessler. They are the franchise's clearest combination of star power, fit, age and long-term value. Quentin Grimes, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Collin Sexton and Cameron Carr also arrived recently enough that the Lakers have little reason to reverse course immediately.
The eighth spot is where the exercise becomes interesting. Jake LaRavia stays over Jarred Vanderbilt, Ziaire Williams, Matisse Thybulle, Jaden Hardy, Dalton Knecht and Kevon Looney. Vanderbilt's salary could theoretically help in a trade, but his limitations have made that contract less useful than it once looked. Knecht has the former-first-rounder label, yet the Lakers may value LaRavia's fit and cost more. Bronny James being exposed would dominate headlines, but the basketball decision is much less dramatic. Expansion forces Los Angeles to separate public attention from actual roster value.
Memphis Grizzlies
Protected: Cameron Boozer, Cedric Coward, Zach Edey, Taylor Hendricks, Scotty Pippen Jr., Jaylen Wells, Quinten Post, Cam Spencer
Unprotected: Isaiah Stewart, Jerami Grant, Ty Jerome, Kris Murray, D'Angelo Russell, Walter Clayton Jr., AJ Johnson, Taj Gibson, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, GG Jackson, Karim Lopez
Memphis is deep enough that an expansion team could come away with a legitimate rotation player no matter what the Grizzlies do. Cameron Boozer, Cedric Coward, Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer form the easy young core. Taylor Hendricks, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Quinten Post round out a protection strategy built almost entirely around age, cost control and developmental upside.
That leaves a surprisingly strong veteran group exposed. Isaiah Stewart and Ty Jerome could help a good team right away, while Jerami Grant and D'Angelo Russell bring proven NBA roles. GG Jackson is the eye-catching young omission; his scoring upside is real, but Memphis has more prospects than it can realistically prioritize. That is the hidden danger of expansion for rebuilding teams. Veterans are not the only players at risk. When the roster is saturated with young talent, the front office has to rank its prospects publicly, and someone intriguing inevitably ends up available.
Miami Heat
Protected: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Simone Fontecchio, Tim Hardaway Jr., Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins
Unprotected: Bobby Portis, Nikola Jović, Dru Smith, Myron Gardner, Nick Richards, Ryan Conwell
Miami's first two names require no debate. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo are the identity of the roster, and everything else is about building enough shooting, wing defense and secondary creation around them. Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell stay because they can guard and survive in high-level lineups. Tim Hardaway Jr., Klay Thompson and Simone Fontecchio are protected because this team cannot afford to lose shooting. Pelle Larsson gets the final slot for his ball-handling and age.
Nikola Jović is the uncomfortable omission. He still has theoretical upside, but Miami's immediate roster construction makes shooting reliability and two-way fit more urgent. Bobby Portis and Nick Richards are useful bigs, yet protecting additional frontcourt depth behind Giannis and Bam would come at the expense of perimeter skill. The Heat's list is therefore unusually role-driven: keep the superstars, then protect the players who make those superstars easier to use.
Milwaukee Bucks
Protected: Tyler Herro, Ryan Rollins, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Brayden Burries, Nate Ament, Kasparas Jakučionis, Ousmane Dieng
Unprotected: Myles Turner, Kyle Kuzma, Caris LeVert, AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr., Kevin Porter Jr., Jericho Sims, Pete Nance, Bogoljub Marković
Milwaukee's list runs out of spots faster than its reputation as a rebuilding team might suggest. Brayden Burries and Nate Ament are lottery picks and therefore automatic. Ryan Rollins is one of the clearest long-term building blocks, while Kel'el Ware and Kasparas Jakučionis still carry enough upside to make exposing them irresponsible. Jaime Jaquez Jr. also stays after establishing real sixth-man value.
The tougher calls are Tyler Herro and Ousmane Dieng. Herro may not be part of the Bucks' next great team, but an expiring salary attached to a proven scorer still has trade utility. Dieng gets the nod over AJ Green because Milwaukee already has several guards who sit between positions and needs more size on the wing. Myles Turner, Kyle Kuzma and Caris LeVert are recognizable names, but their age and contracts make them easier to risk. The Bucks should be protecting optionality rather than chasing a respectable short-term floor.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Protected: Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, Joan Beringer, Ayo Dosunmu, Terrence Shannon Jr.
Unprotected: Donte DiVincenzo, Jaylen Clark, Trey Lyles, Bones Hyland, Cody Williams, Isaiah Evans
Minnesota's protection board is built around a championship push. Anthony Edwards is untouchable, and LaMelo Ball stays because the Wolves specifically added another high-level creator to raise the offense's ceiling. Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels remain foundational to the defense, while Jonathan Kuminga is protected after being brought in to start and add another downhill scorer.
Donte DiVincenzo is the painful exposure. On a normal healthy season and at his salary, he would look like an obvious keeper because shooting and competent guard play are scarce. The Achilles injury changes the calculation. Minnesota is trying to contend now and cannot devote a protected slot to a player likely to miss most of the year when younger and healthier options such as Ayo Dosunmu, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Joan Beringer remain. Jaylen Clark is another useful player squeezed out by roster depth. The Wolves are prioritizing availability and championship-fit roles over sentiment.
New Orleans Pelicans
Protected: Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen, Saddiq Bey, Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi
Unprotected: Jordan Poole, Jordan Hawkins, Bennedict Mathurin, DeAndre Jordan, Karlo Matkovic, Herb Jones, Micah Peavy, Trendon Watford
New Orleans has one important data quirk to flag before the basketball analysis: the source protection table lists Jeremiah Fears twice. Rather than invent an eighth name, this version keeps the seven unique protected players shown there and treats the duplicate as a source-table anomaly. Zion Williamson remains protected because his contract protections reduce some of the downside and his value rebounded after a healthier season. Trey Murphy III is an obvious long-term piece, and Derik Queen, Jeremiah Fears and Yves Missi preserve the younger core.
Jordan Poole is the clearest player the Pelicans would happily expose. His salary no longer matches his production, so an expansion selection could function as financial relief. Bennedict Mathurin is a much tougher call because he is younger and recently signed, while Herb Jones would also attract immediate interest. If New Orleans wanted to correct the duplicated slot, Missi is the name most likely to be debated against Mathurin or Jones—but without authoritative clarification, the cleanest approach is not to manufacture a protection that was not in the source board.
New York Knicks
Protected: Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Deuce McBride, Mohamed Diawara, Landry Shamet
Unprotected: Jose Alvarado, Andre Drummond, Pacôme Dadiet, Jordan Clarkson, Tyler Kolek
New York's first six spots are effectively decided before the meeting begins. Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart make up the starting core, while Deuce McBride is too useful and too movable to surrender for nothing. Landry Shamet also remains because his contract is inexpensive for the amount of playoff-caliber shooting he can provide.
The last spot comes down to the younger fringe. Mohamed Diawara wins it over Jose Alvarado, Tyler Kolek and Pacôme Dadiet because his size, positional scarcity and longer team control give New York more future optionality. Alvarado may be the better player right now, but the Knicks could more easily replace his role than a controllable bigger wing. The exposed list is not devastating, which is the reward for having a well-defined hierarchy. New York could lose a useful rotation piece, but none of the available names would alter the identity of the team.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Protected: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Aday Mara, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso
Unprotected: Jared McCain, Jaylin Williams, Nikola Topić, Kenrich Williams, Bennett Stirtz, Thomas Sorber
Oklahoma City may have the most brutal expansion problem in the league because its ninth, tenth and eleventh players are still valuable assets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are the unquestioned core. Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell and Alex Caruso all matter to the championship-level rotation. The final spot goes to rookie center Aday Mara because his inexpensive team control stretches much further into the future.
That decision pushes Jared McCain into the exposed pool despite his shooting and on-ball creation. The logic is financial. Oklahoma City has already begun making painful moves to keep payroll under control, and McCain reaches his next contract sooner than Mara. The same squeeze leaves Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams and three recent first-rounders available. An expansion franchise could almost certainly find a useful player here. Depth is normally an advantage; in an expansion draft, extreme depth creates unavoidable losses.
Orlando Magic
Protected: Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Anthony Black, Tristan Da Silva, Noah Penda
Unprotected: Goga Bitadze, Jase Richardson, Jamal Cain, Jevon Carter, Nikola Vučević, Jonathan Isaac
Orlando should not use expansion as an excuse to unwind its expensive core. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner may both be on massive contracts, but giving either away would be a catastrophic way to recover flexibility. Desmond Bane cost real trade capital, and Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter Jr. complete a starting group that has barely had time to prove what it can become together. All five stay protected.
Anthony Black follows because his size, defense and ball-handling remain important to the program. Tristan Da Silva gives Orlando useful wing depth on a team that does not have enough of it. The last spot goes to Noah Penda over Jamal Cain, Jase Richardson and Goga Bitadze. Cain may be the better player today, but Penda is younger and more positionally flexible. The Magic can revisit the expensive core later; an expansion draft is not the moment to make permanent decisions before the roster has had a fair test.
Philadelphia 76ers
Protected: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Dean Wade, Anfernee Simons, Dominick Barlow, Adem Bona
Unprotected: Joel Embiid, Labaron Philon Jr., Ariel Hukporti, Jabari Walker, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Justin Edwards
Philadelphia has the boldest superstar gamble on the board: Joel Embiid is left unprotected. That does not mean the 76ers suddenly believe he lacks star talent. It means the combination of age, injuries and an enormous remaining contract could make him functionally unselectable for an expansion team operating under a reduced salary limit. If nobody takes him, Philadelphia has effectively protected nine important players. If somebody does, the Sixers escape one of the league's most difficult financial commitments.
Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe are straightforward long-term protections. The arrival of LeBron James and Jaylen Brown makes the rest of the list aggressively win-now, with Anfernee Simons, Dean Wade, Dominick Barlow and Adem Bona favored over another young prospect such as Labaron Philon Jr. The emotional risk of exposing Embiid would be enormous, and the public messaging would have to be careful. From a pure cap-strategy perspective, however, it is exactly the kind of loophole an expansion draft invites.
Phoenix Suns
Protected: Devin Booker, Miles Bridges, Dillon Brooks, Collin Gillespie, Jordan Goodwin, Oso Ighodaro, Khaman Maluach, Mark Williams
Unprotected: Jalen Green, Luke Kennard, Haywood Highsmith, Koa Peat, Ryan Dunn, Jamaree Bouyea, Rasheer Fleming
Phoenix's most important decision is whether to treat Devin Booker as an untouchable franchise symbol or as an aging, extremely expensive asset. This board chooses the safer organizational answer and protects him. Even if his future salary becomes uncomfortable, exposing the face of the franchise for no return would create an enormous public and asset-management risk.
Jalen Green is the bigger-name omission. His scoring has not justified his contract, and availability concerns make it easier to dare an expansion team to absorb the money. The Suns then prioritize size and cheaper contracts: Mark Williams, Khaman Maluach and Oso Ighodaro all stay, even though keeping three centers may look redundant. That is where reasonable disagreement starts. Ryan Dunn, Rasheer Fleming and Luke Kennard each have a case, depending on whether Phoenix values defensive upside, shooting or roster balance. The Suns' list reflects a team trying to preserve both recognizable talent and inexpensive frontcourt depth.
Portland Trail Blazers
Protected: Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan, Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard, Toumani Camara, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Robert Williams III
Unprotected: Ja Morant, Yang Hansen, Micah Potter, Vít Krejčí, Sidy Cissoko, Branden Carlson
Portland's most dramatic move is also its easiest strategic gamble: Ja Morant is left exposed. The Blazers acquired him at a discount precisely because his contract and off-court downside already depressed his value. With a crowded guard room and several younger players the franchise would rather develop, letting an expansion team absorb Morant could be a clean reset rather than a disaster.
The protected list instead keeps Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan, Toumani Camara, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe as the younger structural pieces, while Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard remain as proven veteran anchors. Robert Williams III gets the final slot because healthy rim protection still matters. Yang Hansen's omission would have been shocking a year earlier, but concerns about his NBA readiness and defensive mobility have cooled the urgency. Portland is essentially saying that its future core and selected veteran leaders matter more than the upside of rehabilitating Morant's value.
Sacramento Kings
Protected: Domantas Sabonis, Darius Acuff Jr., Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud, De'Andre Hunter, Precious Achiuwa, Dylan Cardwell, Nique Clifford
Unprotected: Zach LaVine, Malik Monk, Alex Karaban, Daeqwon Plowden, Emanuel Sharp
Sacramento could justify a much more radical protection list, but this version stops short of exposing Domantas Sabonis. His contract is expensive and the Kings have explored his market before, yet giving him away would be a poor substitute for a real trade. If he stays healthy and moves closer to the end of the deal, Sacramento may still be able to extract value later.
Zach LaVine is easier to expose because his large expiring salary would not necessarily interest an expansion team, and losing it would clear the books. Malik Monk is another difficult omission, but De'Andre Hunter's contract structure gives Sacramento more trade flexibility, so Hunter is protected instead. The rest of the list leans hard into younger or controllable pieces such as Darius Acuff Jr., Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud and Nique Clifford. The Kings are not good enough to protect every veteran at the expense of their next cycle, so the expansion exercise becomes an accelerated retool.
San Antonio Spurs
Protected: Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Tobias Harris, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant
Unprotected: De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes, Jayden Quaintance, Tarris Reed Jr., Jordan McLaughlin
San Antonio provides the single most shocking name in the entire exercise: De'Aaron Fox is available. He is still an All-Star-level guard, but the Spurs' long-term logic is unusually clear. Victor Wembanyama is the franchise, while Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle already occupy two premium backcourt development slots on rookie contracts. Paying Fox like a second star could limit San Antonio's ability to spend aggressively at positions where the roster has fewer answers.
That does not make exposing Fox painless. Losing a very good player for nothing would normally be terrible asset management. The counterargument is that an expansion selection would remove a massive long-term salary and give the Spurs a rare do-over while Harper and Castle are still cheap. Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie and Carter Bryant stay because their contracts and roles fit more naturally around Wembanyama. This is a bet on roster geometry, not a claim that Fox is the ninth-best player.
Toronto Raptors
Protected: Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, Collin Murray-Boyles, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Ja'Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead, Jamison Battle
Unprotected: Jakob Poeltl, Allen Graves, Kyle Anderson, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Alijah Martin
Toronto's board starts with three non-negotiables: Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles. Ja'Kobe Walter also belongs because the Raptors need exactly the type of two-way wing profile he offers. RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley remain important scoring and playmaking pieces even if their contracts are not cheap, and Jamal Shead's point-of-attack defense is too valuable to give away.
The final spot goes to Jamison Battle because shooting remains one of Toronto's persistent roster needs. That leaves Jakob Poeltl exposed, a move the real organization might resist because it values continuity at center. The bet is that an expansion team may hesitate to spend meaningful money on an older traditional big when cheaper options exist. Allen Graves has an upside case, but Battle fills a clearer need. Toronto's list therefore protects the skills it struggles hardest to find: star creation, two-way wings, guard defense and reliable perimeter shooting.
Utah Jazz
Protected: Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Ace Bailey, Darryn Peterson, Keyonte George, Jusuf Nurkić, Josh Okogie, Brice Sensabaugh
Unprotected: Josh Green, Jaxson Hayes, Svi Mykhailiuk, Mo Bamba, Kyle Filipowski, Isaiah Collier
Utah's protection list mixes two expensive stars with young lottery talent and a few lower-cost veterans. Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. stay because the Jazz have already committed to a more competitive direction. Ace Bailey and Darryn Peterson are obvious long-term investments, while Keyonte George has played his way into a central role and is approaching another contract.
Isaiah Collier is the most interesting young omission. If Utah were still operating as a pure rebuilding team, his age and playmaking would probably make him a keeper. The Jackson trade and George's growth change the math by giving the Jazz clearer priorities in the backcourt and frontcourt. Kyle Filipowski also has a case after productive stretches, but his defensive limitations and Utah's expensive frontcourt make another big harder to prioritize. Josh Okogie and Brice Sensabaugh stay because wing depth and lower-cost scoring remain useful around the bigger names.
Washington Wizards
Protected: AJ Dybantsa, Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Justin Champagnie, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George, Will Riley
Unprotected: Trae Young, Deandre Ayton, Tre Mann, Khris Middleton, Bub Carrington, Tristan Vukčević
Washington's expansion strategy is built around one aggressive contract gamble: Trae Young is left unprotected. The Wizards may like him as a player, but an expansion team would have to commit an enormous portion of its first-year spending power to a small guard on a huge long-term deal. Washington can therefore try to keep the relationship intact without using one of its eight official protections.
Anthony Davis is treated differently. His salary and injury history are also significant, but his league-wide value remains high enough that the Wizards should not risk losing him for nothing. The real protected core is younger: AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George and Will Riley all fit the next competitive window. Justin Champagnie stays because he provides useful production on a cheap contract. Bub Carrington is the painful young omission, but the Wizards already have too many higher-priority developmental pieces to save everyone.
What the 30-Team Board Says About an NBA Expansion Draft
The biggest takeaway from running all 30 teams is that an expansion draft would function as a league-wide stress test for contracts. Expensive stars such as Joel Embiid, De'Aaron Fox, Trae Young, Ja Morant and Josh Giddey can land on the unprotected side even though they are clearly better basketball players than many of the names protected ahead of them. The mechanism rewards teams willing to ask a colder question: would an expansion franchise actually spend a huge portion of a reduced first-year cap on this player?
That creates the possibility of de facto extra protections. A team can leave a massive contract exposed, expect the expansion clubs to pass and use the official eight slots on younger or cheaper players. But the strategy is dangerous. If the new team values the star more than expected, the original franchise loses a major asset for nothing. The most aggressive boards—Philadelphia with Embiid, San Antonio with Fox, Washington with Trae Young and Portland with Morant—would therefore generate the most nervous front offices on draft night.
The second major lesson is that depth can become a liability. Oklahoma City, Memphis and several other young teams have more than eight players they would hate to lose. Expansion would force those organizations to publicly rank prospects and role players who normally coexist without an immediate either-or decision. Contenders face a different version of the same problem: Golden State and Indiana have to choose between veteran help for the present and younger value for the future.
And that is why a real NBA expansion draft would be so compelling. The obvious superstars would barely be the story. The real drama would live in the eighth protection spot, the contract a team quietly hopes disappears, the young player another franchise values more, and the first surprising name that suddenly becomes available.
