NBA GMs Pick Spurs for 2027 Title — Wembanyama Gets 77% MVP Vote
GOATIFYThe NBA's front offices have delivered a striking preseason verdict: San Antonio is the narrow favorite to win the 2027 championship, and Victor Wembanyama is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP. In the league's annual general-manager survey released October 15, the Spurs received 50% of championship votes to Oklahoma City's 43%, while Wembanyama drew 77% of MVP picks. That is not a result already decided on the court or a forecast produced by a betting market. It is a snapshot of how the executives who build NBA teams see the coming season.
The gap between San Antonio and Oklahoma City is small enough to invite debate. The gap between Wembanyama and the rest of the MVP field is not. The same survey makes him the near-unanimous choice for best defensive player and the player executives would choose to start a franchise. Yet other categories still belong to established stars, and the league's most respected defensive team is not San Antonio. The story is less about crowning the Spurs in October than about what these competing judgments reveal.
Why San Antonio edged Oklahoma City in the championship vote
For a franchise that reached the 2026 Finals without lifting the trophy, San Antonio's new status is an extraordinary promotion. Half of the general managers who answered the championship question chose the Spurs, compared with 43% for Oklahoma City. New York and Philadelphia received the remaining votes. A year earlier, the Thunder had commanded 80% of title predictions. That swing captures a changing perception of the West: Oklahoma City is still formidable, but its claim to be the obvious team to beat has faded.
It would be a mistake to treat the seven-point survey margin as a precise difference in team quality. These are opinions, not simulated playoff probabilities, and a few votes can move percentages sharply when the respondent pool is only the league's general managers. The contenders are even closer when executives rank the Western Conference. San Antonio received 53% of first-place votes, Oklahoma City 47%, and both finished with the same 34% of weighted ranking points. The collective view is a two-team race rather than a runaway.
San Antonio's strongest advantage may be the age and ceiling of its core. Wembanyama is 22, Stephon Castle is 21 and Dylan Harper is 20. That trio combines rim protection, shot creation and development potential. An emphatic 87% of executives selected the Spurs as the league's most promising young core; Washington followed with 7%, and only Charlotte and Oklahoma City drew other votes. The number is about tomorrow, but it helps explain today's championship prediction. The team's best players can still improve while already possessing the tools to compete deep into June.
There is an important counterweight. Oklahoma City took 77% of the votes for best defensive team, compared with 20% for the Spurs. The Thunder also led the voting for the most efficient offense at 27%, ahead of Denver at 20%. Those are not minor advantages. San Antonio may have the most exciting growth curve and the most feared individual defender, but Oklahoma City's collective identity remains highly regarded. A seven-game series could hinge on what a preseason survey cannot settle: health, lineup chemistry, late-game possessions and which club can impose its style when its first option disappears.
Minnesota ranked third in the West, Denver fourth and Houston fifth, with the Lakers sixth. That hierarchy could change quickly once meaningful games begin. For the Spurs, the immediate task is converting potential into consistent wins against teams that have spent years refining their playoff habits.
Wembanyama's 77% MVP lead does not erase the Jokic-Shai challenge
Wembanyama's 77% share of the MVP vote is the survey's loudest individual prediction. Nikola Jokić received 10%, Anthony Edwards 7%, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum also drew votes. The previous year, Jokić led the same question with 67%. A single preseason ballot cannot tell us how the race will end, especially with games, minutes and availability still to come, but it does show that expectations have moved sharply toward San Antonio's star.
The case extends well beyond scoring. Wembanyama averaged 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 3.1 blocks in 64 regular-season appearances in 2025-26. He won Defensive Player of the Year, earned All-NBA and All-Defensive First Team honors, and finished third in MVP voting. Those achievements already put him among the elite. The next challenge is sustaining his two-way influence over a full season while giving the Spurs the offensive reliability required of a top seed.
Executives were even more decisive when asked whom they would sign to launch a franchise: 93% chose Wembanyama, with Gilgeous-Alexander and Cooper Flagg also receiving votes. That is different from asking who is best right now. It rewards age, size, defensive range and potential for improvement. In separate questions, 97% named him the league's best defensive player and 97% chose him as its best interior defender. His influence extends beyond blocks: opponents must reconsider driving lanes, lob windows and the spacing required to attack the paint.
Other stars retain important territory. Jokić was chosen as the NBA's best center by 63% of executives, compared with 37% for Wembanyama. Denver's playmaker also received 87% of the vote for best passer, a resounding endorsement of a skill set that changes the shape of an offense. Yet Wembanyama edged Jokić 53% to 47% in the best international player category; last year Jokić had taken 93%. That is a dramatic shift in reputation, not proof that one player has become superior in every context.
Gilgeous-Alexander's position is instructive too. Oklahoma City's star led the best-point-guard vote with 67%, ahead of Jalen Brunson and Luka Dončić, and the Thunder remained the preferred defensive team. So even as Wembanyama dominates the MVP forecast, the decision-makers continue to credit his main rivals' systems and established creators. The debate will be settled on the court: can San Antonio turn Wembanyama's individual advantages into nightly control, or will Jokić, Shai and other contenders make the race much closer than October's vote suggests?
The rest of the ballot reveals an NBA in transition
The survey's other answers help explain why the Spurs-Thunder race is not the entire NBA story. Philadelphia drew 73% of votes for the best overall offseason, while Miami took 10%. Executives identified Giannis Antetokounmpo's move to Miami as the single acquisition most likely to make an impact, with 53% of votes. Jaylen Brown joining Philadelphia received 20%, while LeBron James joining the 76ers and Kawhi Leonard returning to Toronto each received 13%. Those choices underline how thoroughly star movement has reshaped the Eastern Conference.
Even with those arrivals, the defending champion New York Knicks remained the leading pick to win the East in the conference rankings, drawing 60% of first-place votes. Philadelphia followed with 23%, Cleveland and Boston with 7% each, and Detroit with 3%. The 76ers were also considered the most difficult team's success to predict, with 27% of votes in that category. A team can win the offseason and still have to prove its roster can defend, stay healthy and function together when the postseason arrives.
The rookie votes draw a distinction between immediate expectations and long-term ceiling. Memphis forward Cameron Boozer was the Rookie of the Year favorite with 50%, ahead of Chicago's Caleb Wilson at 20%, Washington's AJ Dybantsa at 17% and Utah's Darryn Peterson at 13%. Asked which rookie will be best in five years, however, executives split the top vote evenly between Dybantsa and Wilson at 33% each. Boozer received 23%. The names are familiar, but the order changes because being ready to contribute immediately is not the same as having the highest eventual ceiling.
One of the most revealing votes looks beyond the NBA. Olympiacos forward Sasha Vezenkov received 77% as the best international player currently outside the league, up from 44% a year ago. Jonas Valančiūnas was second at 7%, with several other European-based stars receiving votes. Vezenkov averaged 19.0 points and 6.4 rebounds in 39 EuroLeague games during 2025-26 and collected both the scoring trophy and another MVP award. His lead is a reminder that elite basketball talent is not confined to the NBA's 30 rosters.
None of these ballots should be mistaken for a completed season. General managers were not permitted to vote for their own teams or personnel, and different questions reward different skills. Some measure current performance, some forecast future awards and others identify long-term roster value. The apparent contradictions are useful rather than embarrassing. San Antonio can be the most popular championship pick while Oklahoma City is considered the best defensive team. Wembanyama can be the MVP favorite while Jokić remains the preferred center and passer. Those tensions are what make the season interesting.
For San Antonio, the survey is both validation and pressure. A 50% championship vote, an 87% young-core vote and Wembanyama's 77% MVP backing show how high expectations have climbed before opening night. For Oklahoma City, the message is less flattering but hardly dismissive: the Thunder remain neck-and-neck in the West and lead the league in several team-performance categories. For Jokić, Gilgeous-Alexander and the new-look contenders in the East, the ballot supplies motivation rather than a final judgment.
Once the season begins, the percentages will matter far less than how the Spurs protect the ball, how the Thunder execute late and whether Wembanyama can sustain his extraordinary impact over months rather than moments. October's survey has supplied the arguments. The next eight months will supply the evidence.
