Blanchfield Is Favored — Jasudavicius Has One Route to a UFC Title Shot
GOATIFYThe biggest fight for the UFC women's flyweight title picture this weekend may not be the main event in Edmonton. Erin Blanchfield and Jasmine Jasudavicius meet in Saturday's co-headliner at Rogers Place with a possible route to new champion Natalia Silva at stake. Both made weight on Friday: Blanchfield at 125 pounds and Jasudavicius at 124.5, clearing the final routine hurdle before a matchup that could reorder the division.
Blanchfield is favored because her best weapon is so difficult to neutralize. She turns transitions between takedown attempts, scrambles and escapes into submission opportunities. Jasudavicius is a strong wrestler herself, but the Canadian's best chance may require doing the opposite of what comes naturally: limiting open scrambles, forcing long stretches against the fence and making Blanchfield carry her weight. Two grappling identities are about to collide with very different risk profiles.
Blanchfield's advantage begins before the takedown
Blanchfield's strongest case is built on what happens after the first takedown fails. A defender can stop the initial shot and still lose the exchange if the follow-up forces her to post a hand, turn her hips or expose her back. Blanchfield has the patience to chain attempts together rather than treating one stuffed entry as the end of the sequence. Against another wrestler, that creates a danger: the very scramble Jasudavicius might use to establish top position could offer Blanchfield her most comfortable route to control.
Her November 2025 win over Tracy Cortez illustrated the point. The striking phases were not uniformly easy, and Cortez had opportunities to make Blanchfield work. Once the fight became a chain of wrestling exchanges, however, Blanchfield found a route to the back and finished with a rear-naked choke late in the second round. It was a reminder that an opponent can appear competitive for long periods without making Blanchfield's grappling threat disappear. The finish also carried personal significance after Cortez had beaten her years earlier on the regional circuit.
That does not mean Blanchfield should shoot from too far away or spend three rounds chasing a stationary opponent. Jasudavicius has the frame and strength to make prolonged failed takedowns expensive. A smarter entry begins with the hands: straight punches to bring the guard up, a kick to encourage a reaction, a level change when the Canadian plants her feet. If Blanchfield can make the first layer of offense look like ordinary kickboxing, the second layer becomes harder to anticipate.
There is a distinction between high striking volume and clean striking authority. Blanchfield can keep opponents busy without necessarily forcing them backward with single shots. That makes footwork important. Circling away from the fence would deny Jasudavicius the easiest place to pin her; keeping the center would leave more room to turn a caught kick or an underhook into a dominant angle. Her ideal fight is not a brawl and not a static clinch. It is a series of brief exchanges in which she starts each transition a half-step ahead.
Blanchfield has already proved she can beat established names, including former champion Rose Namajunas. The question Saturday is less about whether she belongs near the title than whether she can make the contest look unmistakably like a title eliminator. A close decision might maintain her standing. A commanding grappling performance, especially one built on clean entries and sustained control, would make a stronger argument for immediate consideration.
Jasudavicius needs a fence fight, not a scramble
Jasudavicius has not arrived at this opportunity by accident. The 37-year-old Canadian has won six of her previous seven fights and rebounded from a setback against Manon Fiorot by defeating Karine Silva in Winnipeg in April 2026. She is comfortable with the hard, unglamorous parts of MMA: collar ties, shoulder pressure, hand fighting and the accumulation of small positional advantages. Fighting in Canada adds energy, but the more useful benefit may be familiarity with the grinding contest she needs to create.
Her clearest route is along the cage. In open space, a shot from too far away gives Blanchfield room to sprawl, circle and counter-wrestle. Against the fence, Jasudavicius can shorten the distance, build an underhook, lean her weight through the shoulder and keep the opponent occupied with knees or short punches. She does not need every clinch to produce a takedown. She needs them to interrupt Blanchfield's rhythm and force repeated physical efforts before any clean attack develops.
That is harder than it sounds because cage wrestling is not a safe zone against an opponent comfortable reversing position. Jasudavicius must keep her head position disciplined, avoid extending both arms at once and resist the temptation to chase a single-leg that exposes her neck. A sloppy change of level can hand Blanchfield an opening for a front headlock, back take or scramble to top control. The Canadian's best wrestling may be the wrestling she deliberately does not initiate.
Striking still matters, even if neither fighter is primarily known for it. Jasudavicius can make the feet dangerous by walking Blanchfield toward the perimeter behind a jab, finishing combinations with low-risk punches to the body and refusing to let the American reset comfortably in the center. She should not chase a knockout that her normal game does not require. Her objective is to make every minute physically costly, then use the threat of the clinch to keep Blanchfield from freely selecting her takedown entries.
There is an important mental component, too. Jasudavicius has discussed preparing for this opponent through more than one camp after their earlier booking moved. Familiarity can help anticipation, but it can also create false certainty. If she decides she can simply outmuscle Blanchfield, she risks turning the fight into exactly the grappling contest the favorite wants. The better version of her plan is adaptable: pressure when Blanchfield retreats, disengage when a scramble becomes chaotic and accept a low-volume round if the positional work is going her way.
Natalia Silva's new belt changes what this fight means
The championship situation gives this co-main event urgency. Natalia Silva emerged from UFC 332 earlier in October with the women's flyweight belt, and the division needs a credible next challenger. The timing of Valentina Shevchenko's return remains part of the wider picture, so Saturday's winner cannot be promised a title fight. Still, a decisive performance between two ranked contenders would be more than a useful result on a Fight Night card.
Blanchfield's argument is continuity. She has operated near the top of the division for years, and her ground game poses a distinctive problem. Her win over Tracy Cortez reinforced the idea that she can find a finish even after difficult early rounds. The strongest possible statement against Jasudavicius would be to show improvement in the part of her game opponents target: using cleaner striking to set up wrestling rather than relying on her grappling to solve every problem.
Jasudavicius offers a different story. She has built her position through work rate, durability and physical control rather than the promise of an unbeaten prospect. A win over Blanchfield would be among the clearest victories of her career. She has discussed the possibility of a future meeting with Silva, whom she previously fought, while emphasizing that the immediate task is Blanchfield. That rematch angle would be compelling, but remains conditional on Saturday's result and the promotion's plans.
Rankings, other contenders and scheduling will still matter after the final horn. What Saturday can decide is whose style looks more transferable to a title fight. Silva is a dynamic striker who will not simply stand still and accept predictable entries. A challenger who demonstrates the ability to cut the cage, control distance and wrestle without sacrificing defensive position would leave Edmonton with a more convincing tactical case than someone who merely survives three close rounds.
Both women can win with wrestling, but they cannot both dictate the kind of wrestling that takes place. Blanchfield wants mobility and transitions; Jasudavicius wants contact and control. The first fighter to impose that distinction consistently will shape the contest and its implications for the division.
Blanchfield should enter as the favorite. Her ability to turn a contested wrestling exchange into an advantageous scramble gives her more ways to win. A decision built on clean entries and top control is plausible, with a submission possible if Jasudavicius overcommits during an escape. That is a forecast, not a result.
Jasudavicius has a credible route if she can make the fence the center of the contest, deny open-space scrambles and steadily wear Blanchfield down. The stakes exceed a co-main-event slot: by Saturday night, one contender could have the strongest fresh argument to challenge Natalia Silva. The question is whether that argument comes from Blanchfield's transitions or Jasudavicius' pressure.
