Misiorowski Has a 1.59 ERA Against LA — Now Skubal Gets Game 1
GOATIFYCover photo: Drovetochicago, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jacob Misiorowski pitching for Milwaukee in June 2025. License. Archival photograph.
The National League Championship Series opens Sunday with a pitching matchup that could define the tone of the entire week. Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski has held Los Angeles to a 1.59 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 17 career innings against the Dodgers. Now he will face Tarik Skubal, the two-time Cy Young winner who became Los Angeles' biggest summer addition and helped pitch the club past Atlanta. The opening game at American Family Field is not simply a contest between a rising power arm and an established ace. It is the first test of whether the Brewers can turn their regular-season edge into a different October result.
Milwaukee won four of seven meetings with Los Angeles in 2026 and finished with 103 victories to the Dodgers' 100. Yet the Dodgers outscored the Brewers 27-25 in those seven games, and last year Los Angeles swept Milwaukee in the NLCS after losing all six regular-season meetings. Both teams have reason to respect the opponent and distrust easy predictions. With Yoshinobu Yamamoto lined up for Game 2, a slumping Shohei Ohtani searching for form and the bullpens facing seven-game decisions, the margins may be thinner than the star power suggests.
Misiorowski versus Skubal is a Game 1 matchup built on missing bats
Photo: Spanneraol, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Dodger Stadium during the 2025 NLDS. License. Archival stadium image.
The opening matchup is confirmed: Milwaukee will hand Game 1 to Jacob Misiorowski, while Los Angeles will counter with Tarik Skubal. Their recent work suggests a contest in which one mistake could carry more weight than an inning of traffic on the bases. In 17 innings against the Dodgers across three appearances, including last October, Misiorowski has a 1.59 ERA, 27 strikeouts and three walks. That is elite production.
Seventeen innings do not guarantee a repeat. Los Angeles can adjust after repeated exposure, but 27 strikeouts in that span are a warning: the Dodgers cannot simply wait for Misiorowski to lose the zone. They need to avoid expanding at two-strike pitches, force longer at-bats and put runners on before the heart of the order. Milwaukee wants him ahead in counts so that his power pitches remain weapons rather than invitations to walk.
Skubal offers the Dodgers a similar weapon. He struck out seven and allowed one earned run over six innings against Milwaukee on August 16, though he took the loss. He then threw six innings of one-run, two-hit baseball in the NLDS opener against Atlanta. The two-time Cy Young winner arrived from Detroit at the summer deadline and has already delivered the kind of October performance that justified Los Angeles making a major move for him.
Milwaukee can accept a low-scoring home opener if Misiorowski prevents Los Angeles from stringing together productive at-bats. The Dodgers want Skubal to neutralize Milwaukee's contact and running game before it creates pressure on the defense. Neither manager needs a complete game, but both would prefer to enter the late innings with their best relievers available on preferred terms. The early innings may dictate the bullpen sequence.
Yamamoto and Henderson make the second game just as uncomfortable
Photo: ウィ貴公子, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Dodgers gear at the March 2025 Tokyo Series. License. Archival photograph.
Even if Game 1 delivers the ace duel everyone expects, neither offense gets an easy release in Game 2. Dave Roberts has named Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Monday, putting last year's World Series MVP into a matchup he handled well during the regular season. Yamamoto faced Milwaukee twice in 2026 and won both starts, allowing two runs across 13 innings while striking out 12. Against Atlanta in the NLDS he produced seven innings, 10 strikeouts, one run and four hits. That is genuine depth behind Skubal.
Milwaukee has a strong answer in Logan Henderson. Across two starts against the Dodgers this season, Henderson surrendered one run in 12 innings and struck out 13, winning both games. The Brewers' staff is not built around one surprising arm. Its ability to sustain difficult matchups across multiple starters is why a seven-game series looks more balanced than the marquee names suggest. Henderson can maintain Milwaukee's pressure or restore balance after an opening loss.
The move from a five-game Division Series to a seven-game Championship Series matters. Managers must plan for more innings, a longer sequence of opposing lineups and the possibility of a starter returning on shorter rest later in the week. Roberts has discussed adding a 13th pitcher to the NLCS roster, which would require sacrificing a position-player spot. Another arm could protect the club after a short start or an extra-inning game, but it would also reduce pinch-hitting and defensive options on the bench.
There are questions beneath the first two starters. Blake Snell had a difficult NLDS outing against Atlanta, while Tyler Glasnow remains another high-upside option. Milwaukee has its own mix of starters and relievers after surviving San Diego. A close Game 2 may turn on when the first reliever enters, which side can make a second pass through the batting order against the same pitcher, and how aggressively each manager protects tomorrow's arms. Depth still demands sound decisions.
Seven regular-season meetings point toward narrow margins, not a runaway
Photo: Michael Barera, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; American Family Field before a September 2025 Brewers game. License. Archival ballpark photograph.
Milwaukee won four of its seven meetings with Los Angeles in the 2026 regular season, yet the total run differential favored the Dodgers, 27-25. That combination should temper claims that either club has solved the other. Five of the seven games ended with the losing side scoring only one or two runs. Los Angeles hit .188/.291/.335 across those meetings; Milwaukee hit .228/.313/.307. The head-to-head evidence describes two offenses that had to earn almost every extra-base hit, not a matchup guaranteed to become a slugfest.
There were individual exceptions. Andy Pages hit three of the Dodgers' seven home runs in the series, Max Muncy added two and Teoscar Hernández batted .375 with a .444 on-base percentage. William Contreras supplied two of Milwaukee's three home runs. These numbers inform lineup construction without guaranteeing a repeat. Pitching assignments, health, the strike zone and the order in which managers deploy relievers will all differ in October. The lesson is that each lineup has specific pressure points worth attacking, not that seven games have already settled the championship series.
Milwaukee's running game adds another layer. The Brewers stole 162 bases during the regular season, fifth-most in the majors, at a 75-percent success rate. Against the Dodgers, however, they stole only twice and were caught three times. A stolen base can be valuable when hits are scarce, but an out on the bases can be devastating in a one-run game. Milwaukee needs favorable pitcher-catcher matchups rather than forcing action for its own sake. Los Angeles has a clear way to keep the Brewers from manufacturing the first run.
History also warns against treating regular-season results as destiny. The Dodgers lost all six meetings with the Brewers in 2025, then swept Milwaukee in the NLCS. This October, the Brewers arrive with 103 regular-season wins to the Dodgers' 100 and the advantage of opening at home. Those achievements are real, as is the memory of last year's elimination. Milwaukee does not need to prove that its regular season was superior. It needs to translate its style into four wins against a fully prepared playoff rotation. Every extra base and defensive choice could matter.
Ohtani's quiet NLDS makes the supporting cast and bullpen decisions pivotal
Photo: DewyCakes, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Andy Pages batting for the Dodgers in April 2026. License. Archival regular-season photograph.
There is one offensive question the Dodgers cannot answer with another ace. Shohei Ohtani went 2-for-13 in the four-game NLDS against Atlanta, and injuries have complicated his recent form. The club has expressed confidence that his bat will reawaken, but confidence is not the same as production. A best-of-seven series against Milwaukee's power arms leaves less room to wait for one superstar to rescue a stalled inning. Los Angeles has already shown it can advance while Ohtani is quiet. It now has to show that the rest of the order can create opportunities against a staff built to limit hard contact.
The supporting cast has evidence on its side. Muncy and Freddie Freeman combined for five home runs against Atlanta, while Pages, Teoscar Hernández and Kiké Hernández contributed timely swings and competitive at-bats. Pages is particularly interesting against Milwaukee because he hit three home runs in the clubs' seven regular-season meetings. That shows the Dodgers can punish pitchers overly focused on their superstars. Milwaukee will want the lower half of the order to prove it can reach base without gifting extra chances to the top.
Bench and bullpen construction could amplify the small margins. Roberts has considered carrying an extra pitcher for the longer series, and utility infielder Miguel Rojas was being evaluated after leaving an NLDS game with lower-back discomfort. No final roster choice should be treated as settled before an official announcement. An extra arm helps after a short start; one fewer position player makes it harder to counter a late pitching change. Milwaukee faces its own management choices, especially with left-handed hitters such as Brice Turang, Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick influencing relief matchups.
Ohtani's power is only one factor. The more useful question is whether Los Angeles can keep its offense connected from one batter to the next. Walks, productive outs, singles and clean defensive execution can win games when starters are striking out hitters. Milwaukee's route is similar: turn pressure into runs before the Dodgers line up their best late-inning arms. If the NLCS becomes a string of close contests, its defining moment may come from a secondary hitter or a bullpen decision rather than the player on the billboard.
The Brewers have a real opportunity to rewrite the ending of last October. They own home-field advantage, a deeper sense of how to attack this opponent and a Game 1 starter whose strikeout numbers against Los Angeles demand attention. The Dodgers have an equally compelling counterargument: Skubal and Yamamoto can control the first two games, their lineup has already survived an Ohtani slump, and their postseason experience has repeatedly made regular-season results look irrelevant.
Game 1 will not settle a best-of-seven series, but it can reveal which team is better equipped to win the close, uncomfortable innings that this matchup appears likely to produce. Watch how long the starters maintain command, whether Milwaukee's running game can find an opening, and whether the Dodgers' supporting hitters create pressure before the bullpens take over. The matchup is compelling precisely because neither side has an obvious shortcut to four wins.
